The Cambridge Weekly – 1st August 2022

Positive returns amidst negative sentiment For a second consecutive quarter, the US economy shrank in real terms. Yet the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by another 0.75% last Wednesday because the US economy is too strong. We write, in a separate...

The Cambridge Weekly – 25th July 2022

Economy weakens but central banks persevere Global investors tend to be quite US-focused, as the world’s largest economy has an outsized impact on trends across the world. Last week though, attention was on the other side of the Atlantic. European economic data caught...

The Cambridge Weekly – 18th July 2022

Too hot, too cold Investors’ rough ride continued last week. Markets are being buffeted by the ups and downs of economic data and the resultant changing expectations for central banks. We had unexpectedly positive UK economic growth during May, while the continued...

The Cambridge Weekly – 11th July 2022

Markets not reflecting public fear The murder of past Japanese Prime Minister Abe is a reminder of how much we should value our public servants and politicians. We should be grateful to all our politicians that they are prepared to do a job we need so much. Whether...

The Cambridge Weekly – 4th July 2022

Energy price shock turns into central bank focal point More than two years since the COVID virus hit Europe, it is clear that most peoples’ livelihoods have been affected more by the policy ‘medicine’ than the virus itself. Of course, without those interventions which...

The Cambridge Weekly – 27 June 2022

Public sentiment vs economic realities Through much of this second quarter, the financial market narrative has been about inflation. Last week the Office for National Statistics (ONS) informed us that inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from...

The Cambridge Weekly – 20 June 2022

Linchpin oil price As central banks around the world were busy reasserting their authority and credibility as the guardians of monetary stability, the previous week’s stock market wobble turned into a fully-fledged rout last week. The growth concerns that preoccupied...

The Cambridge Weekly – 13 June 2022

Reading between the lines After the resurging positive sentiment of past weeks, markets were last week once again showing signs of fragility – the mood was decidedly ‘risk off’. We could characterise this as growth scepticism, or more wariness that inflation will...

The Cambridge Weekly – 6 June 2022

Rollercoaster for the Jubilee funfair Party stalls went up and libations flowed for the Platinum Jubilee. But no fairground is complete without some thrilling rides. Over the last month, capital markets chipped in with a rollercoaster of their own: equity indices...

The Cambridge Weekly – 30 May 2022

As recession talk subsides, inflation pressures increase As we reach the final days of May, markets appear to be calming down. Stock markets achieved a positive week and credit spreads – the proverbial canary in the coalmine ahead of recessions – have come down...

The Cambridge Weekly – 23 May 2022

Talking recession to fight inflation It has been another rocky ride week for capital markets, with inflation talk increasingly turning into chatter of an ‘inevitable’ recession, prompting the most recent cohort of DIY retail investors to throw in the towel. However,...

The Cambridge Weekly – 16 May 2022

Bear market fear as another tech bubble deflates To some investors it will seem the old investor adage of ‘Sell in May and go away’ has once again proven correct, especially when the US S&P500 fell within touching distance of that bear market threshold of -20%...

The Cambridge Weekly – 9 May 2022

Market noise is almost deafening The last week of April was like being on a roller coaster. We had rather hoped that the ride was almost over, but in fact it’s only been getting wilder. For the past five weeks, the asset markets have been displaying greater...

The Cambridge Weekly – 3 May 2022

Range bound markets – despite the drama Equity markets have been range-bound through the past few weeks, but it does not feel like it. Volatility is at its highest since the nasty period in March 2020, which always raises our perceptions of potential downside. But the...

The Cambridge Weekly – 25 April 2022

Finely balanced Easter week was a bit mixed for investors – and this was not caused by fears that populist Marine Le Pen closing the gap to incumbent French president Emmanuel Macron may have heralded another major political upset in the 2nd and final round of the...

The Cambridge Weekly – 19 April 2022

Easter review and outlook The annual rate of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) was reported at 7% in the UK, 8.5% in the US and even Germany recorded 7.3%. These are heights not seen for 40 years and were unsurprisingly front and centre of last...