Trust the MPC to rain on May’s parade After a period where it felt like there was a shortage of news, things are hotting up. Both equity and bond markets are bearing up well generally but, in our estimation, underlying risks have increased since May started. After the...

A small predicament Last week’s investor focus was dominated by May’s central bank rate decisions, with the weaker spots in US (regional bank) markets continuing to rumble just beneath the surface. Australia’s Reserve Bank made the start on Tuesday, surprising most...

Inflation running out of money Over the past few weeks, we have observed how markets have been hanging in a fine balance, as evidenced by the rather directionless and decreasingly volatile bond, equity and currency markets. We are not the only ones who see it that...

Prospects of a warm spring Another relatively quiet week meant a generally benign environment for risk assets. In our last Weekly, we discussed how low-volatility markets tend to rise, which prompted some questions from readers, so we’ll explain our thoughts later in...

Return of calm bodes well for spring Easter lies behind us and the second quarter of the year ahead. Considering how unnerving the first three months of the year were, UK investors in globally diversified multi-asset portfolios (akin to the ones we manage) have not...

Spring of hope following winter of doom? This year began in anticipation of imminent global recession, but imminent did not mean immediate, and as the second quarter gets under way, the chances of a global recession may be less now than they were. The chart below is...

Markets put bank stress behind, but challenges remain The first quarter of 2023 is now behind us, and while March ran the whole gamut of emotions for investors,we end the month (and quarter) on a fairly positive and quiet note. For the average UK investor who holds...

Swiss parochialism backfires March continues to provide investors with the opposite of the ‘steady-as-she-goes’ environment of January and February. News last week of consumer price inflation in the UK rising again, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England...

Bank stress testing - live Unease about the state of markets had been palpable since more or less the beginning of the year, as noted repeatedly on these pages over the past months. Following the run on Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) last week, financial system fear spread...



Market wrestling For weeks we have been talking of an equity market that is relatively expensive in comparison to bond markets, especially government bond markets. Below is a chart which tracks the dividend yield of the FTSE 100 (calculated from 12-month trailing...

  

Mood swings For some time, bond and equity markets have been experiencing teenager-like mood swings. As February ended and March began, government bond yields continued their march higher to levels last seen last autumn, when stock markets tumbled as a result. Yet,...

Balancing acts Last week saw global stock markets give back a portion of the gains made in the first few days of February. Still, since the start of the year, global stocks have made a total return of around 5% in £-sterling terms (Source: Bloomberg). Over the past...

A dose of realism creeps in Last week, the UK’s leading stock market index, the FTSE 100, finally passed the psychologically important threshold of 8,000. And yet, after the strong start to the year in January, February has brought consolidation rather than a...

A challenging week brings investors back down to earth Overall, UK bond and equity markets slipped back last week, despite the FTSE 100 edging higher until Thursday lunchtime when it reached a new all-time price high. Since the previous week’s US employment data, the...

Are central banks transforming from hawks into doves? Last week was like the other four weeks of 2023: dominated by central bank action, inflation, and despondency over the UK economy. Meanwhile, stock and bond markets stayed buoyant. The monthly US jobs report was a...