Fattening ‘tails’ It does not happen often that market-moving news emerges after we have finished writing The Cambridge Weekly. Last week proved to be an exception. Having just commented on how politics and the prospect of fiscal easing by US and European governments...

Populism politics reversing austerity? Following last week’s excitement over the yield curve inversions in the US and UK – which have been powerful recession predictors in the past – this week saw the return of calmer capital markets. World stock markets have...

Market spat between bond and equity markets Last week, we suggested that the recent market pullback (down, then up to almost recovered) is unlikely to be the end of this bout of market volatility. Sure enough, markets became even more volatile over this week, despite...

Bond markets unnerve equity markets – again We have repeatedly commented on these pages that the good mood in asset markets this year is more to do with central bank policy than a positive backdrop of the real economy. With poor economic fundamentals, central banks...

The Elephant and the Little Old Lady: A tale of two Central Banks It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Dickens’ immortal line roughly sums up the differing actions of two of the world’s major central banks this week. In the US, the Federal Reserve...

The quick and the not-so-quick It’s official: May is out and Boris is in. But despite the political changes this could bring, currency markets hardly reacted. £-sterling started the month at €1=£0.897, and remains at that level at the time of writing. It has weakened...

…‘twere well it were done quickly It has been another reasonable week for risk assets, especially equities. At the time of writing, markets around the world are within a percentage point of last week’s highs. In the US, large cap stocks are floating just off the...

Positioning for a summer of wait and see Cambridge’s investment team held its in-depth investment committee meeting last week, where we reflect on how the economy and capital markets have developed relative to our expectations from previous meetings and what may have...

Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs – for how long? The highly anticipated meeting between US President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Osaka came and went - with somewhat of a damp squib outcome compared to some...

The tortoise cracks the egg – what’s real diversification? ‘Don’t put all your eggs in one basket’ is a phrase we hear time and time again. Although useful in explaining the concept to clients, it’s not really helpful in explaining why we seek to diversify and how it...

Battle of the ‘doves’ There were relatively few economic data or corporate announcements this week. The US came within a hair’s breadth of clearly carrying out an act of war against Iran. And the global stocks rose 2.25% during this week, with the US S&P500 index...

Mixed messages After a good start, June has carried on in a positive way for investors. Over the past week stock markets consolidated their gains, while bond yields stopped falling. Following the rapid deterioration of US manufacturing data, a number of positive data...

The return of the central bank put? Stock markets rallied on the hope that central banks' reassuring comments will lead to monetary stimulus once again Are Woodford's woes the death knell for active management? With deep knowledge of his investment approach we go...

Bond rally musings It all seemed to make a lot of sense to the media commentators this past week: government bonds rallied and equity markets fell because investors no longer expect a return of meaningful global economic growth during 2019, and in the UK the...

It is getting warmer Unfortunately this headline is not intended to suggest that things are getting better, but rather that Donald Trump’s trade war is heating up. In a way I feel reminded of the Cold War between the US and the USSR in my youth, when the odd skirmish...

Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity? A little over one week into the escalation of the US-China trade wars, stock markets have calmed and even made a partial recovery from last week’s sell-off. Globally, stock markets are now trading around 3.5% below...

Geopolitics re-enter market stage Just as markets were trying to prove that they have regained some rational balance when they shrugged off central banks’ rejection of further monetary support, geopolitical tensions returned with vengeance. Perhaps it was naïve of the...

Central banks disappoint expectations Last week we wrote that stock markets faced being challenged by the decline of a number of stimulating aspects that had been regularly named as the drivers of the 2019 recovery. The most crucial one being central banks’ assurances...

Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice A pleasant Easter break has been followed by new highs for US equity indices. And yet, it has been a less comfortable week for professional investors. The tailwinds blowing the 2019 stock market bounce-back are waning....

Spring time from here? It is quite incredible how much investor sentiment has changed over the past 4 months. At Christmas, equity markets had suffered a decline from their September highs, which had many market commentators suggesting that the end of this prolonged...