Phase II kick-off – from staying home to staying safe Last week was a short week for most regions. Friday’s VE day holiday here in the UK was labelled “Victory in Europe” in 1945 and marked the huge victory against the forces of tyranny and isolating nationalism. We...

Trial and error After making a cameo appearance in the build-up to March’s COVID-19 market crash, last week saw oil return in dramatic fashion to reclaim the spotlight. This time the performance veered almost into parody, with the oil price falling into the negative...

Stock markets between hope and despair - just like anyone else The markets following Easter finished a bumpy week on a sizeable gain, as hope spread that COVID‑19 restrictions may be lifted sooner rather than later, and anecdotal observations that some already...

Lifting lockdown remains a delicate balancing act The post-Easter week brought continued relief for long-term investors, with a consolidation of the recovery from previous weeks followed by reacceleration towards the end of the week. That said, the continued strength...

Unprecedented quarter or calm before the storm?  Our quarterly review puts the events of March into context and considers the road ahead Oil price slump - dangerous or stimulating for economy? Brent crude drops to 2002 levels, creating both threats and opportunities...

Extraordinary: bear and bull market all in one month It is the era of superlatives, the most frequent being “unprecedented”. The term is unavoidable and, I suspect, carries a level of unease only comparable to what many of our grandparents must have felt following the...

Notes on a crash: the short, medium and long term Last week will remain in the memories of the investment community for a very long time. Because of the extremely rapid fall from the all-time high that global markets had reached on 19 February, this stock market crash...

Forced sellers and other distractions Disorderly divestments create confusing market dynamics Last week could be characterised as an "orderly" repricing of equity markets to the consequences of COVID-19 disruptions. This week has seen second-order market dynamics,...

Market update – Oil + COVID-19 Oil price plunge adds to stock markets pressures from Coronavirus While most people spent the weekend dealing with the prospect of the COVID-19 epidemic taking hold of UK life, the financial community woke up this morning to another,...

Coronavirus market update – ramping up countermeasures can be scary Since our last update a week ago, market dynamics have developed very much along the lines we outlined as our expectation. The US Federal Reserve has taken the lead and lowered US interest rates by...

Coronavirus - hitting too close to home World-wide infections may be reducing, but with new cases appearing close by stock markets are now shock markets - 'keep calm and carry on' is once again the best motto for prudent investors.   Brexit may be 'Harder' than...

COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fears Global equity markets have taken a significant hit this week, as investors started to take news of COVID19 spreading beyond China to the rest of the world more seriously. We thought it would be a good time to...