Markets are driving the markets – will the economy keep up? It has been another quiet week in capital markets, which may be a surprise given the political shouting about the General Election. As we have written before, the recent rally in risk assets is at odds with...

Markets pause for reality check Conventional market wisdom holds that the cold and damp of autumn usually heightens the probability of downside volatility in markets – particularly when the economic outlook is unclear. The last quarter of 2018 was a prime example of...

Crucial October period safely behind October has ended: time to take stock of market and portfolio returns. In general, stock markets nudged up further while government bond yields recovered, eroding some of bonds’ earlier valuation gains. For UK investors however,...

Slowly turning Another week, another Brexit delay. EU leaders have decided to wait until after the election vote next week before saying how long may be acceptable for another delay. Despite some tough words from France, it seems unlikely they will be so unreasonable...

Atmospheric improvements It is quite incredible how much market sentiment can swing at the moment on the back of ‘atmospheric’ changes in the political debate. Only last week, we wrote how the political news-flow did not contribute positively to the short term outlook...

Stall speed economy fears spreading Once again, politics took our breath away during this first week of October. Donald Trump appeared to live-stream ever more evidence for his own impeachment, while the UK’s Boris Johnson ricocheted in his Brexit language between...

Ominous US-Dollar strength The unprecedented events unfolding in UK politics this week will have distracted many UK investors from developments in the wider world. But those global developments may well carry far greater significance for near-term return developments...

Diverging economic trends – catalyst for trade war resolution? We know from conversations with some of our portfolio investors and financial advisers that the investing UK public is currently almost entirely focused on every twist and turn of the Brexit...

Market sentiment rebound Last week, we wrote that equity markets would need to see an improvement in global economic growth if they were to move higher. So, it was typical commentator’s curse that this week saw a rise in equities all over the world, despite no clear...

Choppy water but no storm, yet The week has, yet again, felt tumultuous. The government’s Brexit strategy has been halted in its tracks by a miscalculation of the official opposition and internal Conservative Party opposition. Many commentators were also confounded,...

Fattening ‘tails’ It does not happen often that market-moving news emerges after we have finished writing The Cambridge Weekly. Last week proved to be an exception. Having just commented on how politics and the prospect of fiscal easing by US and European governments...

Populism politics reversing austerity? Following last week’s excitement over the yield curve inversions in the US and UK – which have been powerful recession predictors in the past – this week saw the return of calmer capital markets. World stock markets have...

Market spat between bond and equity markets Last week, we suggested that the recent market pullback (down, then up to almost recovered) is unlikely to be the end of this bout of market volatility. Sure enough, markets became even more volatile over this week, despite...

Bond markets unnerve equity markets – again We have repeatedly commented on these pages that the good mood in asset markets this year is more to do with central bank policy than a positive backdrop of the real economy. With poor economic fundamentals, central banks...

The Elephant and the Little Old Lady: A tale of two Central Banks It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Dickens’ immortal line roughly sums up the differing actions of two of the world’s major central banks this week. In the US, the Federal Reserve...

The quick and the not-so-quick It’s official: May is out and Boris is in. But despite the political changes this could bring, currency markets hardly reacted. £-sterling started the month at €1=£0.897, and remains at that level at the time of writing. It has weakened...